Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
