Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
