Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The mean figure of per-day murders each month in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government data. However, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide figures may not point to improved national security.

Significant Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen in these months is remarkably significant,” the President stated, noting that in November the smallest amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily military efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true considering the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not valid for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it could hide days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders high peaks of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.